FreedomWorks For America Weekly Update – March 11, 2022
Ted Budd
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OH-SEN: U.S. Senate Republican Candidate Forum
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RECENT ENDORSEMENTS
GA-06: Jake Evans
For current endorsements, please visit: https://freedomworksforamerica.org/
2022 GENERIC BALLOT VOTE
Note: According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, “From 2004 to 2020, a 1% increase in a party’s share of the generic ballot has translated to an average 0.87% bump in the House popular vote.” Additionally, this cycle their model shows that, “if the generic ballot polling ends up as roughly tied (as it is now), the model would suggest something like a 15-seat net gain for Republicans. A Republican lead of 10 points would correspond with a net gain of more like 30 seats.”
- Republicans: 46.4% — Democrats: 43.6%
- Spread: Republicans +2.8
- Republicans: 44.8% — Democrats: 42.6%
- Spread: Republicans +2.2
- Spread: Republicans +4
U.S. CENSUS DATA & REDISTRICTING UPDATE
Florida – Legislature OKs new congressional districts, DeSantis threatens to veto.
North Carolina – Redistricting map finalized.
Pennsylvania – Redistricting map finalized.
Wisconsin – Redistricting map finalized.
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UPCOMING FILING DEADLINES
| NC OH* UT | OR | CA GA ID | IL MT | CO ME | IA NV | MD | NM | MO SD | SC | AZ NJ |
| Mar. 4 | Mar. 8 | Mar. 11 | Mar. 14 | Mar. 15 | Mar. 18 | Mar. 22 | Mar. 24 | Mar. 29 | Mar. 30 | April 4 |
HOUSE WATCH LIST
GOING ON OFFENSE: U.S. HOUSE
| State | CD | PVI (2022 Estimated) | Incumbent/ GOP Candidate | CoH(‘21 Q4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 2 | R+6 | Tom O’Halleran (D) | $1,272,591 |
| AZ | 6 | R+3 | Retirement (D) | N/A |
| CA | 47 | D+3 | Amy Phan West (R) | $77,403 |
| CO | 8 | R+1 | Lori Saine (R) | $129,161 |
| GA | 6 | R+12 | Jake Evans (R) | $1,006,587 |
| IA | 3 | R+3 | Cindy Axne (D) | $2,104,780 |
| IL | 11 | D+5 | Catalina Lauf (R) | $255,976 |
| IL | 14 | D+4 | Lauren Underwood (D) | $2,096,240 |
| KS | 3 | R+2 | Sharice Davids (D) | $2,384,611 |
| ME | 2 | R+6 | Jared Golden (D) | $1,426,268 |
| MI | 7 | R+2 | Elissa Slotkin (D) | $4,508,719 |
| MI | 8 | R+1 | Dan Kildee (D) | $1,744,516 |
| MI | 10 | R+3 | John James (R) | N/A |
| MN | 2 | EVEN | Angie Craig (D) | $2,635,506 |
| NJ | 7 | R+2 | Tom Malinowski (D) | $2,748,801 |
| NV | 1 | D+3 | Dina Titus (D) | $838,192 |
| NV | 3 | D+2 | Susie Lee (D) | $1,789,060 |
| NV | 4 | D+3 | Steven Horsford (D) | $1,678,907 |
| TX | 15 | D+1 | Retirement (D) | N/A |
| VA | 2 | R+3 | Tommy Altman (R) | $53,227 |
| VA | 7 | D+1 | Bryce Reeves (R) | $224,911 |
| VA | 10 | D+5 | Jeanine Lawson (R) | $373,636 |
| WA | 8 | D+1 | Kim Schrier (D) | $687,778 |
HOUSE UPDATES:
MN-01 (Special): “House GOP winces as Hagedorn’s scandal-plagued widow eyes his empty seat”
- “The late GOP Rep. Jim Hagedorn’s widow is laying the groundwork to try to seek his old seat in Minnesota, according to multiple well-placed Republicans who are already raising alarms about her polarizing background.”
PA-17: “Allegheny County Republican chair DeMarco to run for Congress in 17th District”
- “Sam DeMarco, the top Republican official in Allegheny County, has officially filed paperwork to run for Congress in Democrat Conor Lamb’s old district.”
VA-02: “Rep. Good endorses far-right congressional candidate who has called for voter-fraud executions”
- Rep. “Good, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, on Monday became the first Republican member of Congress in Virginia to endorse a candidate in the state’s crowded House primary in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, one of the state’s most competitive districts.”
SENATE WATCH LIST
Below are the current six Senate races and the candidates FreedomWorks for America is watching for potential upcoming endorsements.
We’ve added Oklahoma’s special election for U.S. Senate after Sen. Inhofe is retiring.
SENATE UPDATES:
GA-SEN: New Poll Released
- Herschel Walker: 66%
- Gary Black: 8%
NC-SEN (We’ve endorsed Rep. Ted Budd): “Trump’s man in North Carolina struggles in Senate primary”
- “GOP Rep. Ted Budd is trailing in polls and lagging in fundraising. According to audio from a recent donor event, Trump has noticed.”
NC-SEN (We’ve endorsed Rep. Ted Budd): “NC GOP Senate candidate launches ad accusing primary rival of supporting Putin”
- “Former governor Pat McCrory focuses on Putin comments from fellow Republican Ted Budd, who is backed by Donald Trump.”
OH-SEN: New Poll Released
- Mike Gibbons 22%
- Josh Mandel 20%
- J.D. Vance 11%
- Jane Timken 9%
- Matt Dolan 7%
- Neil Patel 2%
- Mark Pukita 1%
- Would Note Vote 4%
- Undecided 24%
OK-SEN (Open): “Former Oklahoma House Speaker T.W. Shannon announces US Senate bid”
- “The 44-year-old was a member of the Oklahoma House of Representatives from 2007-15. He served as speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives from 2013-2014. Shannon ran for the US Senate in 2014 but lost to James Lankford by over 20 points in the Republican primary. Shannon has served as the CEO of Chickasaw Community Bank since 2017.”
- Mac Note: We endorsed T.W. Shannon in 2014 against now-Senator Lankford and spent significant time and resources for his race.
UT-SEN (We’ve endorsed Sen. Mike Lee): Sen. Mike Lee Gets Six Republican Challengers
- “Six fellow Republicans have filed to take him on, and the two who have attracted the most attention are nanotechnology firm executive Ally Isom and former state Rep. Becky Edwards. Isom and Edwards, who like Lee are pursuing both routes to the ballot, are hoping to rally the state’s vocal contingent of anti-Trump Republicans against the incumbent, but they face a very difficult battle.”
THE FINAL COUNTDOWN
- Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 242
- Days until the 2024 election: 969
OTHER RACES
GA-GOV: New Poll Released
- Brian Kemp: 50%
- David Perdue: 39%
POLITICAL STORIES OF INTEREST
Politico: “GOP governors ready fall ad blitz in 5 battleground states”
- “The Republican Governors Association is rolling out its first round of major TV buys ahead of the 2022 midterms, investing $31.4 million in five states that feature top gubernatorial races.”
Daily Beast: “The $2 Million Question: What Did the DC Trucker Convoy Donations Buy?”
- “The trucker convoy has largely been making it up as they go, but truckers are grumbling that they don’t know the endgame or what all the donations have been used for.”
Politico: “GOP vies to keep statehouse control in these 2024 battlegrounds”
- “State legislative Republicans hope to build on their flip of Virginia’s state House last year — and a slate of GOP candidates running hard against President Joe Biden — to make more inroads in Democratic-held legislatures this fall, while defending their turf.”
Axios: “The new silent majority: People who don’t tweet”
- “Why it matters: The rising power and prominence of the nation’s loudest, meanest voices obscures what most of us personally experience: Most people are sane and generous — and too busy to tweet. Reality check: It turns out, you’re right. We dug into the data and found that, in fact, most Americans are friendly, donate time or money, and would help you shovel your snow. They are busy, normal and mostly silent.”
Daily Kos: DCCC unveils first round of its “Red to Blue” program
- [C]andidates whom the committee thinks has the strongest chance of picking up GOP-held districts or defending competitive open seats. The full list of contenders making the DCCC’s initial roster are below:
- CA-22: Assemblyman Rudy Salas
- CA-45: community college trustee Jay Chen
- CO-07: state Sen. Brittany Pettersen
- IA-01: state Rep. Christina Bohannan
- IA-02: state Sen. Liz Mathis
- IL-13: former Biden administration official Nikki Budzinski
- MI-03: 2020 nominee Hillary Scholten
- NM-02: Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez
- NY-01: 2020 NY-02 nominee Jackie Gordon
- NY-11: former Rep. Max Rose
- OH-01: Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman
- OH-13: state Rep. Emilia Sykes
- Most of these candidates don’t face any serious intra-party opposition in their primaries.