The Latest: The 2024 Most Vulnerable House Seats

National News

AP: GOP leaders, stung by losses, plan to wade into Senate races

“This is our last chance this decade to target red-state Democrats, so we’re going to do whatever it takes to recruit candidates who can win both a primary and general election.”
- Said by Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, the new chairman of the NRSC.
“If he enters the primary, Dave McCormick (who previously ran in the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate race) has been promised support from the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC linked to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.”
“Another example of recent intervention is the committee’s early endorsement of Rep. Jim Banks in Indiana’s Senate primary. Though Indiana is reliably Republican, a crowded primary, like in 2018, could sap resources better spent in competitive states. Banks has yet to draw a serious competitor.”

CNN: Democrats launch new campaign to tie vulnerable New York Republicans to George Santos

“Beginning on Monday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is rolling out a five-figure billboard campaign targeting five freshman Republicans who took donations from Santos: New York Reps. Nick LaLota, Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams, all of whom helped Republicans win a narrow majority last fall by winning seats that President Joe Biden had carried.”
“All five Republicans have sought to distance themselves from Santos, becoming some of the loudest voices in the party to condemn him or call on him to resign. Still, Democrats see an opening to tie these GOP freshmen to Santos.”

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U.S. House of Representatives Updates

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Notes on the State of Politics March 1st

“The Crystal Ball is starting the open MI-7 race as a Toss-up.” (formerly Rep. Slotkin’s seat who is now running in the MI U.S. Senate race)
“Tom Barrett is running again, and his candidacy could deter other GOP entrants (he was unopposed for the nomination in 2022).”
“Democrats have several prospects for the seat, but it seems possible that whomever they nominate will have a home base in Lansing’s Ingham County — the blue bastion of the district, it gave Slotkin over two-thirds of the vote each time she was on the general election ballot.”

POLITICO: Competitive congressional districts decline

“House races across the country continue to get less competitive… nationally, more races are getting decided by a wide margin.”
“Eighty-four percent of House seats last year were decided by 10 or more points or were uncontested, and the average margin of victory in contested races was 28 points, according to FairVote.”
“The number of uncontested seats and victories of 20 percent or more jumped from 265 to 291 since 2018.”
“The group also tracks how many crossover representatives there are — Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden, and Democrats in districts that voted for former President Donald Trump. There are 23 of those members in this Congress, one of the lowest numbers in the group’s records.”
“FairVote lists nine of those as the most vulnerable heading into 2024: Democratic Reps. Mary Peltola (Alaska), Jared Golden (Maine), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.), Marcy Kaptur (Ohio) and Matt Cartwright (Pa.), along with Republican California Reps. John Duarte, Mike Garcia and David Valadao and Republican New York Rep. Anthony D’Esposito.”

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Senate Updates

The Washington Post: Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin announces Senate run in Michigan

“Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin announced her candidacy Monday for the U.S. Senate in Michigan, entering a race regarded as a key battleground in the fight for control of the upper chamber of Congress in 2024.”
“Slotkin’s Senate run was widely anticipated after Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) stunned Michigan Democrats last month with her decision not to seek reelection. In recent weeks, Slotkin has had private conversations with Democrats around the state to gauge and build support for her bid. Most prominent Democrats in the state have decided not to run, making Slotkin the early front-runner.”
“No prominent Republicans have entered the race.”
“Republicans whose names have been floated include former congressman Fred Upton, who retired last year, former congressman Peter Meijer, who lost his House primary after voting to impeach Trump, and the party’s 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee, Tudor Dixon.”
“The Michigan GOP is broke and struggling after losing power statewide for the first time since the 1980s.”

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Presidential Updates

AP: DeSantis moves toward GOP presidential bid on his own terms

“As DeSantis moves toward a White House run, it is becoming increasingly clear that the 44-year-old Republican governor will manage his presidential aspirations in his own way, on his own timeline, with or without allies in national GOP leadership or relationships with the press.”
““DeSantis has, in his style and the actions he’s taken as governor, shown a willingness to fight the traditional powers that be, the establishment,” said David McIntosh, president of the Club for Growth.”
“For now, DeSantis is perhaps the most potent threat to Trump’s effort to win the GOP nomination for the third time. The Club for Growth will host DeSantis among a half-dozen presidential prospects at a closed-door retreat in Florida next weekend with top donors. Trump is not invited.”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Notes on the State of Politics March 1st

“While Joe Biden won the national popular vote by about 4.5 points, his margins in several key states were much narrower.”

“Specifically, Biden’s 3 closest wins were by 11,779 votes (or .24 percentage points) in Georgia, 10,457 in Arizona (.31 points), and 20,682 (.63 points) in Wisconsin.”
“Had these states voted for Donald Trump and everything else had been the same, the Electoral College would have produced a 269-269 tie, leaving both candidates short of the magic number of 270 electoral votes.”
There are 4 charts that give scenarios of possible electoral ties for the 2024 Presidential election.
In short, “it’s possible, even under the new Electoral College allocation and even if you just focus on the states that were most competitive in 2020, for an electoral tie in 2024.”