The Latest: Red Tsunami Watch

2022 Generic Ballot Vote:

FiveThirtyEight: Midterm Forecaster

  • House: Republicans ARE favored to win the House.
  • Senate: It’s a DEAD HEAT for the Senate. 

Note: According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, their model shows that “if the generic ballot polling ends up as roughly tied … the model would suggest something like a 15-seat net gain for Republicans. A Republican lead of 10 points would correspond with a net gain of more like 30 seats.”

Real Clear Politics:

  • Republicans: 47.9% – Democrats: 44.9%
  • Spread: Republicans +3.0

FiveThirtyEight

  • Republicans: 46.4% – Democrats: 45.2%
  • Spread: Republicans: +1.2%

Ballotpedia:

  • Spread: Republicans: +3%

The Final Countdown:

  • Days until the 2022 Midterm Elections: 4
  • Days until the 2024 Presidential Election: 732

House Updates:

Will Republican Gains In South Texas Win Them More House Seats?

  • “According to our forecast, Republicans’ best chance of gaining a congressional seat in South Texas is the now-open 15th District — which Trump won by 3 points in 2020 — where Democrat Michelle Vallejo and Republican Monica De La Cruz are neck-and-neck.”

House Rating Changes: 10 More Blue Districts Move in GOP’s Direction

  • “This week, we’re moving ten seats in the GOP’s direction – all in very blue states and all in districts Biden carried by between eight and 20 points in 2020.”
  • “In our newest ratings, 212 seats at least lean towards Republicans, 188 seats at least lean towards Democrats and there are 35 Toss Ups. That means if all the Lean, Likely and Solid races hold, Republicans would only need to win six of the 35 Toss Ups to take the majority, whereas Democrats would need to win 29 of the 35 to keep control. We’re sticking with our overall outlook of a GOP gain between 12 and 25 seats.”

Karoline Leavitt holds 𝟲 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Chris Pappas in NH-01 Race

  • “Karoline Leavitt (R): 51% (+6) 
  • Chris Pappas (D-inc) 45%”

Tom Barrett leads Dem. Representative Elissa Soltkin in MI-07 race

  • “With five days remaining before the election, Democratic incumbent Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin is locked in a dead heat with Republican state Senator Tom Barrett according to the most recent Mitchell-MIRS Poll of likely General Election voters conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. Barrett leads by less than 1%, 48.4- 47.5%.”
  • “Democrat incumbent Governor Gretchen Whitmer is also in a very tight race with GOP candidate Tudor Dixon. Dixon leads 49.3%-48.7%.”

Senate Updates:

The 2022 Election in North Carolina

  • “In the race for the U.S. Senate in North Carolina, Democrat Cheri Beasley and Republican Ted Budd are tied among registered voters in the state. But, among those definitely planning to vote, Budd has a narrow lead over Beasley.”

Pennsylvania 2022: Oz and Fetterman in Two-Point Race; Half of Voters Say Senate Debate Worsened Their Opinion of Fetterman

  • “Mehmet Oz holds 𝟮 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over John Fetterman in Pennsylvania Senate Race.”
    • “(R) Mehmet Oz: 48% (+2) 
    • (D) John Fetterman: 
    • 46% Emerson | 10/28-31 | 1,000 LV”

Georgia Poll

  • “Herschel Walker holds 𝟱 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Raphael Warnock in Georgia Senate Race.”

Remington Research Group – North Carolina General Election Survey

  • Ted Budd holds 𝟳 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Cheri Beasley in North Carolina Senate Race 
  • (R) Ted Budd: 50% (+7)
  • (D) Cheri Beasley (D): 43%

Political Stories of Interest:

2022 Generic Congressional Ballot among Independent voters

  • Data for Progress (D) 
    • GOP — 52% (R+11) 
    • Dem — 41% 
  • Quinnipiac 
    • GOP — 49% (R+15) 
    • Dem — 34% 
  • NPR/Marist 
    • GOP — 45% (R+12) 
    • Dem — 33% 
  • Cygnal 
    • GOP — 51% (R+9) 
    • Dem — 42% 
  • 𝐀𝐕𝐄𝐑𝐀𝐆𝐄: 𝟒𝟗𝐑-𝟑𝟖𝐃 (𝐑+𝟏𝟏)

Cook Political Shifts GOP House Outlook with Wider Margin of Gains

  • “In blue states where Roe v. Wade is certain to remain law, Republicans have been much more effective in channeling voter anger towards Democrats, who are effectively ‘double incumbents’ at the state/federal levels. They’ve had an easier time there focusing voters’ attention on rising inflation and crime – aided, of course, by news footage of tent cities in Portland and people being shoved onto subway tracks in New York,” Wasserman wrote.”

More Americans are getting news on TikTok, bucking the trend on other social media sites

  • “33% of U.S. adult TikTok users now say they regularly get news on the platform, up from 22% in 2020.”

Red Tsunami Watch

  • “Two weeks out from the midterms, evidence points to a re-emerging red wave that could sweep in GOP control of both chambers. In the Senate, Republican officials are now bullish they’ll gain at least the one seat necessary to regain the majority.”
  • “Polling, spending trends and conversations with leading Democratic and Republican strategists suggest it’s now very possible House Republicans win back the majority on Nov. 8 with more than 20 House seats.”

2022 Generic Congressional Ballot Republicans

  • “48% (R+4) Democrats 
  • 44% Independents 
  • Republicans 49% (+15) 
  • Democrats 34% 
  • Hispanics Republicans 46% (+4) 
  • Democrats 42% 
    • ⦿ 8-point shift towards the GOP from August when the Dems were up by 4 points Quinnipiac | 2,010 RV | 10/26-30”

Press Contact

Peter Vicenzi

Director of Communications

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