Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up
- “The overall battle for House control in 2024 starts as a Toss-up.”
- “Relatively similar numbers of Democratic and Republican seats start in the most competitive Toss-up and Leans categories, although Republicans start with a few more targets in large part because of the likelihood that they will benefit from redistricting in North Carolina and Ohio.”
- “Big blue states California and New York, where Republicans have made key gains over the past couple of cycles, loom large as Democrats plot a path back to the House majority.”
- “Our overall ratings show 212 seats rated Safe, Likely, or Leans Republican, 201 rated Safe, Likely, or Leans Democratic, and 22 Toss-ups. Splitting the Toss-ups evenly, 11-11, would result in a net GOP gain of a single seat. Democrats need to net 5 seats to win the majority. Again, we think this is reflective of an overall Toss-up House race to start.”
- “GOP House and Senate campaign arms are taking very different approaches to dealing with the issue.”
- “After a midterm cycle that saw underfunded and deeply conservative nominees blow winnable races across the country, the new regime at the National Republican Senatorial Committee is reversing its policy of neutrality and will now selectively intervene to pick winners in open GOP primaries. But in the House, where Republicans are protecting a paper-thin majority, the campaign committee will remain largely hands-off.”
U.S. House of Representatives Updates
- Democrat Jennifer McClellan won the special election against Republican Leon Benjamin on Tuesday for Virginia’s 4th Congressional District, where voters decided who would fill the seat of the late Rep. A. Donald McEachin, who died in November.
- The late Rep. Donald McEachin held a FreedomWorks lifetime score of 6%.
- This is a D+16 seat that represents Central Richmond and Petersburg, VA.
- “Americans aren’t opposed to many of these investigations: According to a Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research poll conducted in late January, more than two-thirds of registered voters said it’s at least somewhat important for Congress to investigate the origins of COVID-19, federal agencies’ potential bias against conservatives and the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.”
- “But Republicans’ targets don’t really line up with the issues that registered voters are most concerned about, according to a Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted in November. When voters were asked about their “top priority” for congressional investigations, fentanyl trafficking into the U.S., operations at the U.S.-Mexico border and the infant formula shortage of summer 2022 topped the list. This suggests that the Republicans’ border-security investigation could have some legs — but other issues, like the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, the impeachment of Mayorkas and Hunter Biden’s finances, were ranked lower.”
- “Rep. David Cicilline will resign from Congress on June 1 to become CEO of the Rhode Island Foundation, his office announced Tuesday.”
- According to state election law, the governor cannot call a special election until a House seat has actually been vacated.
- Rep. Cicilline has a FreedomWorks lifetime score of 12.5%.
- “Sen. Joe Manchin, torn over whether to run for reelection, says he’s “given everything I possibly can” over four decades of holding public office.”
- “Sen. Jon Tester is close to making his final decision on a 2024 bid and concedes there’s a risk of his seat flipping next year.”
- “Sen. Bob Casey, a Pennsylvania Democrat, is weighing health considerations after treatment for prostate cancer.”
- “Sen. Bernie Sanders, 81, says he’ll make a decision about whether to run for a fourth Senate term in Vermont “at the appropriate time.””
- “Sen. Mitt Romney, a Utah Republican who has gone to battle with former President Donald Trump, says he’ll decide whether to run for a second term by mid-April, sounding ready to take on his party’s MAGA wing if he runs again.”
- “Sen. Debbie Stabenow announced she’d retire, Schumer and his top deputies are hoping to prevent others from following suit, recognizing that an open seat would give Republicans an even better chance of seizing control of the chamber they lost in the 2020 elections.”
- “Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy announced on Tuesday that he’s running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. “To put America first, we need to rediscover what America is. That’s why I am running for president,” Ramaswamy wrote in a Wall Street Journal editorial. “I am launching not only a political campaign but a cultural movement to create a new American Dream—one that is not only about money but about the unapologetic pursuit of excellence.””