The Latest: GOP Senate Landmines

National News

POLITICO: Republicans are winning more Latino votes. But rising turnout still benefits Dems.

• “There was a noticeable shift among Latino voters in the midterms, who still tilted toward Democrats overall but reached higher levels of Republican support, too.”
• “A new analysis from Voto Latino, a political organization focused on Latino turnout, shows how Hispanic voters helped Democrats maintain the Senate majority.”
• “Arizona and Nevada, two increasingly important battleground states where Latinos have made up more than 15 percent of the electorate for almost a decade. Findings show that, even amid broader Republican gains, Democratic performance increased in areas with high proportions of Latino voters.”
• “Projections show even modest increases of Latino turnout by 2.5 or 5 percentage points would net a fraction of a percentage for Democrats in a two-way race.”
• ““The majority of Latino voters are under the age of 33,” Kumar said. “By default, they’re low-propensity. It doesn’t mean they’re detached — they’re just flowing into the process. They should be taken seriously because they have the ear of their family in a way no party does.””

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U.S. House of Representatives Updates

Roll Call: DCCC picks 29 ‘Frontline’ members for extra help next year

• “Democrats need to win a net five seats to take back the majority in 2024.”
• “The DCCC raised more than $8 million in January, according to Federal Election Commission records, and had $17.2 million cash on hand. It also held $16 million in debt.”
• “Its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee, raised more than $4.5 million in January, FEC records show, and had $17.5 million on hand and $14 million in debt.”
• “House Democrats identified 29 members who are most at risk in the 2024 elections. This list includes some who won districts that Biden lost in 2020.”
• The initial list of Democrats include:
  • Mary Peltola of Alaska
  • Mike Levin of California 
  • Yadira Caraveo of Colorado 
  • Jahana Hayes of Connecticut 
  • Nikki Budzinski and 
  • Eric Sorensen of Illinois 
  • Frank J. Mrvan of Indiana 
  • Sharice Davids of Kansas 
  • Jared Golden of Maine 
  • Hillary Scholten and Dan Kildee of Michigan 
  • Angie Craig of Minnesota 
  • Don Davis and Wiley Nickel of North Carolina 
  • Chris Pappas of New Hampshire 
  • Gabriel Vasquez of New Mexico 
  • Susie Lee and Steven Horsford of Nevada 
  • Pat Ryan of New York 
  • Greg Landsman, Marcy Kaptur, and Emilia Sykes of Ohio 
  • Andrea Salinas of Oregon 
  • Susan Wild, Matt Cartwright, and Chris Deluzio of Pennsylvania 
  • Abigail Spanberger of Virginia 
  • Kim Schrier and Marie Gluesenkemp Perez of Washington

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Senate Updates

Axios: Senate GOP’s 2024 landmines

• “Senate Republicans have been gifted a historically favorable map for 2024, but they are again facing the risk of problematic candidates emerging in must-win races.”
• “Why it matters: Newly minted National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Steve Daines has taken an active role in recruiting strong candidates to run in battleground races.”
• West Virginia – “Gov. Jim Justice likely to announce his run against Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) in the coming weeks, according to sources familiar with his thinking. If Justice runs against Manchin, he would still face a competitive primary against Freedom Caucus member Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.).”
• Montana – Steve “Daines is also close to landing a Montana Senate recruit with a golden resume. Tim Sheehy is a 37-year-old Navy SEAL and Purple Heart recipient who founded two successful businesses and would be able to self-finance a campaign.” Additionally, “potential Senate candidate Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) posed with a neo-Nazi group while walking between congressional hearings this month. He later apologized for not recognizing the group’s affiliation. Rosendale, one of the final holdouts against House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, is closely allied with the deep-pocketed Club for Growth.”
• Ohio – “Club for Growth president David McIntosh has urged Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) to run for Senate against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). Davidson, a Freedom Caucus member, is viewed by GOP leaders as less electable than other prospective candidates.”
• Pennsylvania – “Far-right 2022 gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano is exploring a possible run for Senate against Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.). Daines encouraged former hedge fund executive David McCormick to run at last month’s NRSC retreat and later publicly slammed Mastriano as unelectable: “We need somebody who can win a primary and a general election. His last race demonstrated he can’t win a general.””
• Arizona – “Kari Lake is seriously considering a Senate campaign against Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Democrat Ruben Gallego after losing her 2022 governor’s race. Lake was the featured dinner speaker at CPAC, where she was enthusiastically greeted (and won the VP straw poll). She continues to deny that she lost her election and that Trump lost in 2020.”

CNN: Five Democrats who may retire ahead of 2024 Senate elections as GOP seeks control

• Democrats are defending 23 of the 34 Senate seats up in 2024.
• “Five Senate Democrats could retire ahead of the 2024 elections in America, relinquishing their seats to fresh faces as Republicans seek to gain control of the upper chamber.”

West Virginia Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin

“Sen. Joe Manchin, perhaps the most vulnerable senator in 2024, has not yet announced his re-election intentions. Trump won West Virginia by a whopping 39 percentage points in the 2020 election, making the seat a key target for Republicans.”

Wisconsin Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin

“Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who has served as the junior senator from Wisconsin since 2013, has not declared whether she will seek re-election in the state won by Trump in 2016 by less than a percentage point. Baldwin, according to Bloomberg, said last month that she is “planning an announcement later in the spring, and working very hard.””

Pennsylvania Democrat Sen. Bob Casey

“Sen. Bob Casey announced in January that he had been diagnosed with prostate cancer in December, casting doubt on whether he will seek re-election in 2024 — though he has not yet announced his official decision.”

Delaware Democrat Sen. Tom Carper

“While Carper, 76, has represented Delaware since 2001, has not officially declared whether he will seek re-election next cycle, he said recently that he is focused on doing “what I need to so I can run for re-election and be successful,” according to Bloomberg.”

Maryland Democrat Sen. Ben Cardin

“Sen. Ben Cardin, who has represented Maryland in the Senate since 2007, is undecided on whether to seek re-election in 2024.”

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Presidential Updates

The Guardian: Ron DeSantis visits Iowa as Republican 2024 race heats up – as it happened

• “Ron DeSantis has been in Iowa, railing against what he calls “woke ideology”, and signing books, as he prepares to launch his likely run for the Republican party’s 2024 presidential nomination.”
• “Republican support for Donald Trump in Iowa, meanwhile, has taken a nosedive.”