The Latest: Flipping Nevada Red

RECENT ENDORSEMENTS:

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2022 GENERIC BALLOT VOTE:

FiveThirtyEight: Midterm Forecaster

  • House: Republicans slightly favored to win the House.
  • Senate: Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate.

Note: According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, their model shows that “if the generic ballot polling ends up as roughly tied …, the model would suggest something like a 15-seat net gain for Republicans. A Republican lead of 10 points would correspond with a net gain of more like 30 seats.”

Real Clear Politics:

  • Republicans: 46% – Democrats: 45.1%
  • Spread: Republicans +0.9

FiveThirtyEight

  • Democrats: 45.4% – Republicans: 44.1%
  • Spread: Democrats+1.3

Ballotpedia:

  • Spread: Democrats +1

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THE FINAL COUNTDOWN:

  • Days until the 2022 Midterm Elections: 39
  • Days until the 2024 Presidential Election: 767

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POLITICAL STORIES OF INTEREST:

The Real Midterm Election Stakes

  • “The Democratic election strategy is a new version of their 2020 campaign bait-and-switch. Joe Biden and Democrats in Congress won by making the election a referendum on Mr. Trump and Covid-19. But once in office they pivoted to advance a far-left labor agenda and enact the biggest expansion of government in modern history. The media are ignoring this as they echo the abortion and Trump narrative. So it’s worth laying out what Democrats really have in mind, based on what they tried to do this Congress and are promising for the next.”

Echelon Insights

  • “In our September Omnibus, we tested how different partisan messages performed among the likely electorate. After reading a dozen messages from both parties, the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot fell by 4 points.”

What Is Republicans’ Path To Winning The Senate?

  • “Nevada is a pretty transient state, and according to The New York Times, the state’s share of registered Democrats has dropped. Moreover, Biden won Nevada by only a little over 2 points in 2020, so it’s very possible that Republicans do better here in a favorable midterm year. The COVID-19 pandemic — and the business shutdowns that came with it — were also particularly devastating to Nevada’s tourism industry. That, plus low approval ratings for Biden, have definitely put Cortez Masto on the defensive.”

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Peter Vicenzi

Director of Communications

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