The Latest: Biden Underwater

2022 Generic Ballot Vote:

FiveThirtyEight: Midterm Forecaster

  • House: Republicans ARE favored to win the House.
  • Senate: Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate.

Note: According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, their model shows that “if the generic ballot polling ends up as roughly tied … the model would suggest something like a 15-seat net gain for Republicans. A Republican lead of 10 points would correspond with a net gain of more like 30 seats.”

Real Clear Politics:

  • Republicans: 47.9% – Democrats: 44.5%
  • Spread: Republicans +3.4

FiveThirtyEight

  • Republicans: 45% – Democrats: 44.7%
  • Spread: Republicans: +0.3%

Ballotpedia:

  • Spread: Republicans: +1%

The Final Countdown:

  • Days until the 2022 Midterm Elections: 18
  • Days until the 2024 Presidential Election: 748

House Updates:

Meet the Chinese-American Republican who may make history by flipping a deep blue seat this November

  • “Now, he is aiming to make history again in this solidly blue state. It has been 34 years since a Republican has won a House election in Rhode Island’s Second Congressional District, which covers the western half of the nation’s smallest state. However, Fung, the GOP’s nominee in the district, may break the losing streak in November’s midterm elections.”

Interactive Poll House Rating Changes

  • 3 Races shift Towards Republicans
  • Real Clear Politics HOUSE FORECAST: 
    • Republicans — 221
    • Democrats — 178
    • Toss Ups — 36

Senate Updates:

Nevada Poll

  • A poll conducted by Suffolk University shows FreedomWorks for America endorsed-candidate Adam Laxalt narrowly trailing behind Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto. This is a 5 point shift towards Laxalt since August. 

Georgia Poll

  • A poll conducted by Civiqs shows Herschel Walker 3 points behind Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock. 

Ohio Poll

  • A poll conducted by Emerson College shows JD Vance with a 1 point lead over Dem. Tim Ryan. 
  • Emerson College also took a Presidential poll in Ohio asking if voters preferred Donald Trump to Joe Biden or Ron Desantis to Joe Biden.

PRESIDENT:

  • (R) Donald Trump 48% (+8) 
  • (D) Joe Biden 40% 

OR

  • (R) Ron DeSantis 49% (+11) 
  • (D) Joe Biden 38%

Political Story of Interest:

Ahead of Midterm Elections, Biden’s Net Approval Rating Is Underwater in 45 States

  • “If voters interpret next month’s midterm elections as a referendum on President Joe Biden’s job performance, Morning Consult Political Intelligence tracking suggests Democrats are in for a shellacking, with majorities of voters in 41 states disapproving of his work in office in the third quarter of 2022.”

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