The Latest: 50 Days Until the Midterm Elections




FiveThirtyEight: Midterm Forecaster

  • House: Republicans favored to win the House.
  • Senate: Democrats are favored to win the Senate.

Note: According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, their model shows that “if the generic ballot polling ends up as roughly tied …, the model would suggest something like a 15-seat net gain for Republicans. A Republican lead of 10 points would correspond with a net gain of more like 30 seats.”

Real Clear Politics:

  • Democrats: 45.1% – Republicans: 44%
  • Spread: Democrats +1.1


  • Democrats: 45% – Republicans: 43.5%
  • Spread: Democrats+1.4


  • Spread: Democrats +2



  • NH-01: Stefanik-backed Karoline Leavitt wins N.H. House GOP primary
    • “Leavitt’s win represents a victory for the conservative wing of the Republican Party at the tail end of the 2022 primaries, and sets the stage for what is expected to be one of the most competitive House races in the country.”



  • AZ-SEN: What polls say about Mark Kelly vs. Blake Masters 2 months before election
    • “A survey published by Emerson College on Friday found Kelly ahead by two points—with 47 percent of voters backing the incumbent Democrat, while 45 percent supported Masters, who is endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Five percent of voters said they were undecided about the race, and 4 percent said they planned on voting for another candidate.”
  • WI-SEN: Wisconsin 2022: Voters Splitting Tickets in US Senate and Gubernatorial Elections
    • “The first Emerson College Polling survey of the Wisconsin November general election finds Republican incumbent Ron Johnson with a four point lead over Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, leading 48% to 44%. Six percent are undecided, and 3% plan to support someone else. Regardless of whom they support, 54% expect Johnson to win, while 46% expect Barnes to win.”



  • CO-08: Latino voter’s look to shape the 8th district’s seat
    • “Latino voters make up 39% of the district, by far the largest percentage for any U.S. House seat in the state. Polls show Democratic state Rep. Yadira Caraveo of Thornton and Republican state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer of Brighton are basically tied, fueling the parties’ belief that the seat is up for grabs.”



  • Days until the 2022 Midterm Elections: 50
  • Days until the 2024 Presidential Election: 777



Dems use “vote-shaming” to increase turnout

  • “Studies have shown “vote shaming” can be an effective strategy to increase voter participation. Priorities USA’s approach uses digital ads and social media to reach more than 8 million young people who are newly eligible to vote this year.” 
  • Methodology: “Who you vote for is secret,” says one of the ads posted last month on social media. “But whether you decide to cast a vote or not is public. So keep making your community proud this November.”

Press Contact

Peter Vicenzi

Director of Communications