FreedomWorks for America Weekly Update – March 25, 2022
Adam Laxalt
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OH-SEN: U.S. Senate Republican Candidate Forum
- Turnout: 450+
- Promotion:
- CL Day of Video: https://www.instagram.com/reel/CbQkEcIAhB1/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
- Night of Photos: https://www.instagram.com/p/CbROACdtxSb/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
- “Fight” Video: https://www.instagram.com/reel/CbSlShqgOxA/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
- Recap Video: https://www.instagram.com/reel/CbdcQZwAo2h/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
- Recap Video: https://twitter.com/FreedomWorks/status/1506733856984125461?s=20&t=8as6vph9PK76uR77i5ki9A
- Candidate Big Tech Video Thread: https://twitter.com/FreedomWorks/status/1505299481759301638?s=20&t=8as6vph9PK76uR77i5ki9A
- Attendee Video: https://twitter.com/FreedomWorks/status/1507066486489296897?s=20&t=8as6vph9PK76uR77i5ki9A
- “Fight Video”: https://twitter.com/FreedomWorks/status/1505203644974743566?s=20&t=8as6vph9PK76uR77i5ki9AFacebook:
- Attendee Video: https://fb.watch/bYu6Q0RdbQ/
- Photo Album: https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.347178317455783&type=3
- “Fight” Video: https://fb.watch/bYuslLzcJf/
- Forum Video: https://fb.watch/bYuwNSlSTh/
RECENT ENDORSEMENTS
MN-01: Jeremy Munson
- Press: https://freedomworksforamerica.org/press-releases/freedomworks-for-america-endorses-jeremy-munson-in-minnesotas-first-congressional-district/
- Tweet: https://twitter.com/FWForAmerica/status/1507342049653231616?s=20&t=Is6AwYnhKQeexUtQAPxFwQ
For current endorsements, please visit: https://freedomworksforamerica.org/
2022 GENERIC BALLOT VOTE
Note: According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, “From 2004 to 2020, a 1% increase in a party’s share of the generic ballot has translated to an average 0.87% bump in the House popular vote.” Additionally, this cycle their model shows that, “if the generic ballot polling ends up as roughly tied (as it is now), the model would suggest something like a 15-seat net gain for Republicans. A Republican lead of 10 points would correspond with a net gain of more like 30 seats.”
- Republicans: 45% — Democrats: 41.8%
- Spread: Republicans +3.2
- Republicans: 44.5% — Democrats: 42.5%
- Spread: Republicans +2
- Spread: Republicans +3
U.S. CENSUS DATA & REDISTRICTING UPDATE
Missouri: Compromise finally reached on congressional map.
New Hampshire: Gov. released a proposed congressional map.
UPCOMING FILING DEADLINES
| NC OH* UT | OR | CA GA ID | IL MT | CO ME | IA NV | MD | NM | MO SD | SC | AZ NJ |
| Mar. 4 | Mar. 8 | Mar. 11 | Mar. 14 | Mar. 15 | Mar. 18 | Mar. 22 | Mar. 24 | Mar. 29 | Mar. 30 | April 4 |
HOUSE WATCH LIST
GOING ON OFFENSE: U.S. HOUSE
| State | CD | PVI (2022 Estimated) | Incumbent/ GOP Candidate | CoH (‘21 Q4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 2 | R+6 | Tom O’Halleran (D) | $1,272,591 |
| AZ | 6 | R+3 | Retirement (D) | N/A |
| CA | 47 | D+3 | Amy Phan West (R) | $77,403 |
| CO | 8 | R+1 | Lori Saine (R) | $129,161 |
| GA | 6 | R+12 | Jake Evans (R) | $1,006,587 |
| IA | 3 | R+3 | Cindy Axne (D) | $2,104,780 |
| IL | 11 | D+5 | Catalina Lauf (R) | $255,976 |
| IL | 14 | D+4 | Lauren Underwood (D) | $2,096,240 |
| KS | 3 | R+2 | Sharice Davids (D) | $2,384,611 |
| ME | 2 | R+6 | Jared Golden (D) | $1,426,268 |
| MI | 7 | R+2 | Elissa Slotkin (D) | $4,508,719 |
| MI | 8 | R+1 | Dan Kildee (D) | $1,744,516 |
| MI | 10 | R+3 | John James (R) | N/A |
| MN | 2 | EVEN | Angie Craig (D) | $2,635,506 |
| NJ | 7 | R+2 | Tom Malinowski (D) | $2,748,801 |
| NV | 1 | D+3 | Dina Titus (D) | $838,192 |
| NV | 3 | D+2 | Susie Lee (D) | $1,789,060 |
| NV | 4 | D+3 | Steven Horsford (D) | $1,678,907 |
| TX | 15 | D+1 | Retirement (D) | N/A |
| VA | 2 | R+3 | Tommy Altman (R) | $53,227 |
| VA | 7 | D+1 | Bryce Reeves (R) | $224,911 |
| VA | 10 | D+5 | Jeanine Lawson (R) | $373,636 |
| WA | 8 | D+1 | Kim Schrier (D) | $687,778 |
HOUSE UPDATES:
AK-AL: “Alaska Rep. Don Young, Longest Serving Member in Current U.S. Congress, Dies at 88”
- “Alaska congressman Don Young — a Republican and the oldest current member of both the House and Senate — died on Friday at the age of 88, his office announced.”
WV-02 (We’ve endorsed Rep. Alex Mooney): “New polling shows slight lead for McKinley over Mooney in congressional race”
- “Pollsters found that McKinley would lead Mooney 38 percent to 33 percent in a five-way race – a 5-point difference. Another 25 percent of respondents were undecided.”
SENATE WATCH LIST
Below are the current six Senate races and the candidates FreedomWorks for America is watching for potential upcoming endorsements.
SENATE UPDATES:
AL-SEN (We’ve endorsed Rep. Mo Brooks): “Donald Trump rescinds his endorsement of Mo Brooks in Alabama’s US Senate race”
- “Former President Donald Trump has yanked his endorsement from Alabama Senate hopeful Mo Brooks, promising to make a new endorsement in the race before the May 24 primary.”
AZ-SEN: “Blake Masters leads in Arizona Senate poll conducted for his super PAC”
- “Masters, a venture capitalist, led the field of GOP primary candidates with 16%, with Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich and wealthy businessman Jim Lamon close behind at 14%. Mick McGuire, the former adjutant general of the Arizona National Guard, trailed far behind at 5%. Justin Olson, a state corporation commissioner, garnered just 1%.”
NV-SEN (We’ve endorsed Adam Laxalt): New Poll Results in the GOP Primary
- Adam Laxalt 57%
- Sam Brown 19%
OH-SEN: “Gibbons and Mandel go for round 2”
- “Former state Treasurer Josh Mandel and Mike Gibbons went nose-to-nose in Gahanna, with one man calling the other a ‘[p***y],’ according to footage that quickly went viral on social media. The pair got up in one another’s faces during a tense exchange over a stock trade. Neither would own up to inappropriate language, although HuffPost made the case that it was Gibbons.”
PA-SEN: “Super PAC signals Pennsylvania primary could get rough”
- “A super PAC backing Pennsylvania Senate candidate Conor Lamb is warning prospective donors that he is trailing frontrunner John Fetterman by 30 percentage points in the Democratic primary — and that the public’s perception of his opponent’s ideology must change for Lamb to have a shot.”
THE FINAL COUNTDOWN
- Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 227
- Days until the 2024 election: 955
OTHER RACES
Presidential (2024): “Anti-Trump Republicans lining up for 2024 shadow primary”
- “Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is planning trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., is considering a rough timeline for a potential presidential announcement. And allies of Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., are openly talking up her White House prospects.”
POLITICAL STORIES OF INTEREST
NBC News: “Poll: Hispanics aren’t flocking to the GOP, but Democrats still have problems”
- “Latino voters are more likely than not to think the country is moving in the wrong direction, according to one of the largest surveys of Hispanic voters in recent months.”
New York Times: “Securing the TikTok Vote”
- “Mr. Ryan is not a politician one readily associates with the Zoomers of TikTok. His talking points tend to revolve around issues like reviving American manufacturing rather than, say, defunding the police. But the chino-clad congressman wasn’t naïve to the nontraditional places from which political influence might flow. Years ago he was all in on meditation. Why not try the social platform of the moment?”
Axios: “How to think smartly about TikTok”
- “It’s hard to find a kid who’s not mindlessly scrolling this never-ending stream of short videos. Two-thirds of U.S. teenagers (63%) are on TikTok, according to the market research firm Forrester. TikTok hit 1 billion global users in five years — far more quickly than nearly every other global social media network in history.”