FreedomWorks for America Weekly Update – March 18, 2022
Ted Budd
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OH-SEN: U.S. Senate Republican Candidate Forum
- When: Tonight!
- Live Stream Link:
- Promo Video (Please Share):
- Twitter: https://twitter.com/FreedomWorks/status/1499139623456587780
- YouTube: https://youtu.be/kjMEzyHy6nw
- Facebook: https://fb.watch/bwQew_rJq5/
- Eventbrite RSVP’s: 800+
2022 GENERIC BALLOT VOTE
Note: According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, “From 2004 to 2020, a 1% increase in a party’s share of the generic ballot has translated to an average 0.87% bump in the House popular vote.” Additionally, this cycle their model shows that, “if the generic ballot polling ends up as roughly tied (as it is now), the model would suggest something like a 15-seat net gain for Republicans. A Republican lead of 10 points would correspond with a net gain of more like 30 seats.”
Wall Street Journal: Republicans are leading the generic ballot with Latinos
- “Republicans have a 9-point generic ballot lead with Latinos in the latest WSJ poll.”
- Republicans: 46.8% — Democrats: 43.3%
- Spread: Republicans +3.5
- Republicans: 44.8% — Democrats: 42.7%
- Spread: Republicans +2.2
- Spread: Republicans +5
U.S. CENSUS DATA & REDISTRICTING UPDATE
Florida: Florida voters file lawsuits.
Louisiana: Governor vetos congressional map.
Ohio: Ohio pauses preparations for May 3 primary amid map flap.
UPCOMING FILING DEADLINES:
| NC OH* UT | OR | CA GA ID | IL MT | CO ME | IA NV | MD | NM | MO SD | SC | AZ NJ |
| Mar. 4 | Mar. 8 | Mar. 11 | Mar. 14 | Mar. 15 | Mar. 18 | Mar. 22 | Mar. 24 | Mar. 29 | Mar. 30 | April 4 |
HOUSE WATCH LIST
GOING ON OFFENSE: U.S. HOUSE
| State | CD | PVI (2022 Estimated) | Incumbent/ GOP Candidate | CoH(‘21 Q4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 2 | R+6 | Tom O’Halleran (D) | $1,272,591 |
| AZ | 6 | R+3 | Retirement (D) | N/A |
| CA | 47 | D+3 | Amy Phan West (R) | $77,403 |
| CO | 8 | R+1 | Lori Saine (R) | $129,161 |
| GA | 6 | R+12 | Jake Evans (R) | $1,006,587 |
| IA | 3 | R+3 | Cindy Axne (D) | $2,104,780 |
| IL | 11 | D+5 | Catalina Lauf (R) | $255,976 |
| IL | 14 | D+4 | Lauren Underwood (D) | $2,096,240 |
| KS | 3 | R+2 | Sharice Davids (D) | $2,384,611 |
| ME | 2 | R+6 | Jared Golden (D) | $1,426,268 |
| MI | 7 | R+2 | Elissa Slotkin (D) | $4,508,719 |
| MI | 8 | R+1 | Dan Kildee (D) | $1,744,516 |
| MI | 10 | R+3 | John James (R) | N/A |
| MN | 2 | EVEN | Angie Craig (D) | $2,635,506 |
| NJ | 7 | R+2 | Tom Malinowski (D) | $2,748,801 |
| NV | 1 | D+3 | Dina Titus (D) | $838,192 |
| NV | 3 | D+2 | Susie Lee (D) | $1,789,060 |
| NV | 4 | D+3 | Steven Horsford (D) | $1,678,907 |
| TX | 15 | D+1 | Retirement (D) | N/A |
| VA | 2 | R+3 | Tommy Altman (R) | $53,227 |
| VA | 7 | D+1 | Bryce Reeves (R) | $224,911 |
| VA | 10 | D+5 | Jeanine Lawson (R) | $373,636 |
| WA | 8 | D+1 | Kim Schrier (D) | $687,778 |
HOUSE UPDATES:
OH-13: “Trump backs Madison Gesiotto Gilbert in GOP primary for 13th Congressional District”
- “Former President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he’s backing Canton attorney Madison Gesiotto Gilbert in the GOP primary for Ohio’s 13th Congressional District.”
PA-17: “This swing seat in Pittsburgh suburbs went blue in 2018, but will it stay that way?”
- “The Democratic side is a duel between Navy veteran Chris Deluzio, who works as policy director at the University of Pittsburgh’s Institute for Cyber Law, Policy and Security, and Sean Meloy, a party operative and official at the LGBTQ Victory Fund who would be the first gay person to represent the state in Congress. … The Republican contest, meanwhile, is a battle between Jason Killmeyer, a national security analyst who often appears in conservative media; former Ross Township Commissioner Jeremy Shaffer; and business owner Kathleen Coder.”
WY-At Large: “Liz Cheney turns to Democrats to save her hide”
- “Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) is turning to the same rare species in Wyoming — Democrats — to save her House seat. And Trumpist Republicans are doing everything in their power to thwart her.”
SENATE WATCH LIST
Below are the current six Senate races and the candidates FreedomWorks for America is watching for potential upcoming endorsements.
SENATE UPDATES:
GA-SEN: “Herschel Walker Skeptical Of Evolution: ‘Why Are There Still Apes? Think About It’”
- “Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker cast doubt on the theory of evolution in recent remarks, saying the fact that apes and humans coexist disproves accepted science.”
MT-SEN: “Daines sews up support to lead Senate GOP campaign arm in 2024”
- “Montana Sen. Steve Daines is aiming to lead the GOP’s campaign arm for the 2024 campaign, which will put him in the unusual position of trying to topple his own state’s senior senator.”
NC-SEN (We’ve endorsed Rep. Ted Budd): New Polling
- #1 / McCrory’s favorables have dropped 15 points and his unfavorables have climbed 11 points since June 2021. McCrory has a 43% favorable – 25% unfavorable image rating, with a net favorable image rating of only +18 compared with +44 net fav in June (June: 58% favorable – 14% unfavorable). This confirms McCrory’s own campaign poll released in January that showed his image at 46% favorable – 26% unfavorable.
- #2 / Ted Budd has the best net favorable image rating of any of the Republicans running for U.S. Senate in North Carolina.
OH-SEN: “Republican in Ohio Senate Primary Spoke Offensively About Asians“
- “Mike Gibbons, a leading contender to succeed Senator Rob Portman, made the comments in a 2013 podcast on doing business in China.”
THE FINAL COUNTDOWN
- Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 235
- Days until the 2024 election: 962
OTHER RACES
Presidential (2024): “Anti-Trump Republicans lining up for 2024 shadow primary”
- “Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is planning trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., is considering a rough timeline for a potential presidential announcement. And allies of Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., are openly talking up her White House prospects.”
POLITICAL STORIES OF INTEREST
Axios: “Democrats’ Hispanic peril”
- “Top Democratic operatives see expanding defections by Hispanic voters to the GOP, worsening Democrats’ outlook for November’s midterms. Why it matters: Democrats had hoped this might be a phenomenon specific to the Trump era. But new polling shows it accelerating, worrying party strategists about the top of the ticket in 2024.”
Politico: “‘You will see the wrath’ — Progressives warn Biden against cutting down agenda”
- “President Joe Biden’s vision for building a vast ‘care economy’ has collapsed — and Democrats fear their party’s political advantage with parents and caregivers could end up as collateral damage.”
Axios: “Democrats ask Americans for ‘sacrifice’ on gas prices”
- “At House Democrats’ conference in Philadelphia this week, lawmakers made the case for Biden’s resurgence and for Americans’ shared sacrifice — including paying higher gas prices — to protect democracy.”
Wall Street Journal: “WSJ News Exclusive | Half of Americans Doubt Biden Will Run in 2024, WSJ Poll Shows”
- “52% of Americans don’t think [President JOE] BIDEN will run for re-election in two years, while 29% do expect him to pursue a second term. Nineteen percent are undecided about his future.”
- “Among Democrats, 41% said they think Mr. Biden will run again, while 32% said they didn’t think he would. The poll found 26% of those Democrats unsure.”
- “Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema made fun of President Joe Biden and praised Republican Reps. Kevin McCarthy and Andy Biggs at a closed-door fundraiser, a forthcoming book says. The New York Times reporters Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns pull back the curtain on Sinema’s frequently tumultuous relationship with the Biden White House”
Punchbowl News: “Inside the GOP: McCarthy will announce $11M transfer to GOP groups today”
- “House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will announce this morning in a closed-door GOP meeting that he’s transferred $11 million to the NRCC and state parties in the first quarter of 2022, an eye-popping sum for any party leader.”
Third Way: “The Red State Murder Problem”
- “The rate of murders in the US has gone up at an alarming rate. But, despite a media narrative to the contrary, this is a problem that afflicts Republican-run cities and states as much or more than the Democratic bastions.
- In 2020, per capita murder rates were 40% higher in states won by Donald Trump than those won by Joe Biden.
- 8 of the 10 states with the highest murder rates in 2020 voted for the Republican presidential nominee in every election this century.”