The Latest: How Big is the House Playing Field?
RECENT ENDORSEMENTS:
For current endorsements, please visit: www.freedomworksforamerica.org/candidates
2022 GENERIC BALLOT VOTE
Note: According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, “From 2004 to 2020, a 1% increase in a party’s share of the generic ballot has translated to an average 0.87% bump in the House popular vote.” Additionally, this cycle their model shows that “if the generic ballot polling ends up as roughly tied (as it is now), the model would suggest something like a 15-seat net gain for Republicans. A Republican lead of 10 points would correspond with a net gain of more like 30 seats.”
- Republicans: 46.1% — Democrats: 42.5%
- Spread: Republicans +3.6
- Republicans: 44.7% — Democrats: 42.5%
- Spread: Republicans +2.2
- Spread: Republicans +3
Cook Political: “How Big is the House Playing Field?”
- “Currently, RealClear Politics shows Republicans ahead by 3.6 points in the generic ballot tracker. If that holds up through Election Day, it will represent a 6.6 percent positive shift to Republicans from 2020 (Democrats won the national House vote by 3.1 points in 2020).
So, what would a 6.6 point shift to the right look like? At a very crude level, we could say that it would shift the 2020 vote margin in every CD, about 7 points more Republican. So, for example, a district that Biden carried 52 percent to 45 percent (+7) would become a jump ball (50-50) in 2022. Or, a better way to think of it is that any district that Biden carried by less than 7 points would be in danger of flipping to the GOP.
The good news for Democrats is that (at this point) there are only 21 districts where Biden’s margin was fewer than seven points. Even if we expand that universe to include districts Biden carried by 8-10 points, that universe of potentially vulnerable Democratic-held seats expands only slightly.
[…]
Every metric we use to analyze the political environment — the president’s approval rating, the mood of the electorate, the enthusiasm gap — all point to huge gains for the GOP this fall. But, those metrics are bumping up against an increasingly ‘sorted’ House with few marginal seats and few incumbents sitting in the “wrong district.” As such, the more likely scenario for this fall is a GOP gain in the 15-25 seat range.”
U.S. CENSUS DATA & REDISTRICTING UPDATE
Maryland: New map approved.
New York: Judge to hear new arguments for congressional map.
Ohio: Map disputes won’t stop May 3rd primary.
UPCOMING PRIMARY ELECTIONS:
| IN OH | NE WV | ID KY NC OR PA | AL AR GA | CA IA MS MN NJ NM SD | ME NV NO SC | VA | CO IL NY OK UT | MD | AZ KS MI MO WA | TN |
| 5/3 | 5/10 | 5/17 | 5/24 | 6/7 | 6/14 | 6/21 | 6/28 | 7/19 | 8/2 | 8/4 |
UPCOMING FILING DEADLINES:
| AZ NJ | NY TN VA | ND | MD OK | MI | WA | VT | WY | MA MN | AK KN WI | CT HI |
| 4/4 | 4/7 | 4/11 | 4/15 | 4/19 | 5/20 | 5/26 | 5/27 | 5/31 | 6/1 | 6/7 |
HOUSE WATCH LIST:
GOING ON OFFENSE: U.S. HOUSE
| State | CD | PVI (2022 Estimated) | Incumbent/ GOP Candidate | CoH(‘21 Q4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 2 | R+6 | Tom O’Halleran (D) | $1,272,591 |
| AZ | 6 | R+3 | Retirement (D) | N/A |
| CO | 8 | R+1 | Lori Saine (R) | $129,161 |
| GA | 2 | D+3 | Bishop Sanford (D) | $392,909 |
| GA | 6 | R+12 | Jake Evans (R) | $1,006,587 |
| IA | 3 | R+3 | Cindy Axne (D) | $2,104,780 |
| IL | 11 | D+5 | Catalina Lauf (R) | $255,976 |
| IL | 14 | D+4 | Lauren Underwood (D) | $2,096,240 |
| KS | 3 | R+2 | Sharice Davids (D) | $2,384,611 |
| ME | 2 | R+6 | Jared Golden (D) | $1,426,268 |
| MI | 7 | R+2 | Elissa Slotkin (D) | $4,508,719 |
| MI | 8 | R+1 | Dan Kildee (D) | $1,744,516 |
| MI | 10 | R+3 | John James (R) | N/A |
| MN | 1 | R+8 | Jeremy Munson (R) | N/A |
| MN | 2 | EVEN | Angie Craig (D) | $2,921,566 |
| NJ | 7 | R+2 | Tom Malinowski (D) | $2,748,801 |
| NV | 1 | D+3 | Dina Titus (D) | $838,192 |
| NV | 3 | D+2 | Susie Lee (D) | $1,789,060 |
| NV | 4 | D+3 | Steven Horsford (D) | $1,678,907 |
| TX | 15 | D+1 | Retirement (D) | N/A |
| VA | 2 | R+3 | Tommy Altman (R) | $53,227 |
| VA | 7 | D+1 | Bryce Reeves (R) | $224,911 |
| VA | 10 | D+5 | Jeanine Lawson (R) | $373,636 |
| WA | 8 | D+1 | Kim Schrier (D) | $687,778 |
| WI | 3 | R+4 | OPEN | N/A |
HOUSE UPDATES:
AK-AL: “Trump endorses Sarah Palin in run for Alaska’s congressional seat”
- “Former President Donald Trump on Sunday endorsed Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, in her bid for the state’s lone seat in the U.S. House.”
MI-04: “’This is it for me’: Upton plans to retire from U.S. House, won’t face Huizenga in primary”
- “Longtime Michigan Republican U.S. Rep. Fred Upton said Tuesday he will retire from the House at the end of his term after nearly 36 years in office, ending speculation about his political future that had swirled for months.”
NC-13 (We’ve endorsed Bo Hines): “Local conservatives revolt against Trump House favorite”
- “Donald Trump stunned North Carolina Republicans last month when he announced his support for Bo Hines, a 26-year-old candidate who doesn’t live anywhere near the congressional district he’s running in.”
NH-01 (Baxter & Leavitt on Watch List): “Trump aide [Matt Mowers] seeking NH House seat voted in 2 states in 2016”
- “A former Trump administration official now running for Congress in New Hampshire voted twice during the 2016 primary election season, potentially violating federal voting law and leaving him at odds with the Republican Party’s intense focus on ‘election integrity.’”
NV-04 (Watch List): Sam Peters Launches $51K TV Ad Buy
OH-07: “Ohio Republican Bob Gibbs to retire amid redistricting chaos“
- “Republican Rep. Bob Gibbs announced Wednesday morning he will retire from Congress after six terms rather than face a stiff primary challenge in a substantially redrawn district in northeast Ohio. His departure, which comes after ballots have been printed and early voting has begun in Ohio, is a big win for Max Miller, a former Trump official who secured the president’s endorsement last year when he launched a challenge against GOP Rep. Anthony Gonzalez”
SC-01: “After Trump backed her foe, SC’s Mace says she raised $1M”
- “U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina raised more than $1 million in the first quarter of this year, the bulk of that haul coming in the weeks after former President Donald Trump threw his backing behind one of her GOP primary opponents.”
- CoH: $2.3 Million
VA-02: Former Rep. Scott Taylor won’t run
- Instead, he will endorse State Senator Jen Kiggans
SENATE WATCH LIST:
Below are the current seven Senate races and the candidates FreedomWorks for America is watching for potential upcoming endorsements.
SENATE UPDATES:
ALL: Senate Majority PAC TV Bookings
- “Last week we got preliminary information about the first fall TV bookings from the Democratic group Senate Majority PAC, and AdImpact now has full details about how much money is going into each reservation:
- Arizona: $22.4 million
- Georgia: $24.6 million
- Nevada: $14.1 million
- Pennsylvania: $25.8 million
- Wisconsin: $11.7 million
- Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada are Democratic-held, while SMP is going on the offensive in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These are the first general election reservations we’ve seen from any major outside groups on the Senate side.”
AL-SEN (We’ve endorsed Rep. Mo Brooks): “Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) is up with a new TV ad for his Senate bid, after losing Trump’s endorsement”
- “There’s a cost of being a true conservative, and the swamp hates Mo Brooks,” the ad says. “Washington RINOs don’t want a Senator Mo Brooks, but Alabama conservatives do.”
AZ-SEN: New Republican Primary Poll
- “Lamon doubled his support among likely Arizona GOP primary voters to 22%, pulling into a virtual tie with state Attorney General Mark Brnovich (23%). Brnovich’s support has lost 11 points, while Blake Masters is still in striking distance at 18% in the March poll.”
- Mark Brnovich 23%
- Jim Lamon 22%
- Blake Masters 18%
AZ-SEN: GOP Candidate Blake Masters Raises $1.1M in ‘22 Q1
GA-SEN: “‘The baggage is too heavy’: GOP foes tee up last-ditch effort to sink Herschel Walker”
- “In the eight weeks running up to the May 24 primary, two super PACs supporting Walker’s GOP rivals plan to drop millions of dollars in ads attacking Walker, according to people familiar with their spending plans — ad buys that stand to alter the shape of a race that could decide control of the Senate. Walker is still expected to finish first in the primary. But his opponents intend to drive his support under 50 percent and force him into a June runoff”
MO-SEN: “Sheena Greitens says she has photos, records to document abuse by former Missouri governor”
- “Former Missouri First Lady Sheena Greitens says in a new court filing that she has photos and other evidence to back up her claims that former Gov. Eric Greitens physically abused her and their children as his political career unraveled.”
NC-SEN (We’ve endorsed Rep. Ted Budd): New Poll from the Club for Growth
- Ted Budd: 44%
- Pat McCrory: 31%
- Mark Walker: 11%
- Marjorie Eastman: 3%
- Someone Else: 1%
- Undecided: 11%
NC-SEN (We’ve endorsed Rep. Ted Budd): “The Republican firm Cygnal, which did not identify a client, has a new general election survey that finds GOP Rep. Ted Budd leading Democrat Cheri Beasley 45-43 as former Gov. Pat McCrory ties her 41-41.”
NH-SEN: Poll: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan against three of her declared Republican
- 44-39 vs. 2020 candidate Donald Bolduc
- 43-36 vs. state Senate President Chuck Morse
- 44-34 vs. former Londonderry town manager Kevin Smith (42-24)
NV-SEN (We’ve Endorsed Adam Laxalt): “Democrats Worry That What Happens in Nevada Won’t Stay in Nevada”
- “Democrats have long held up Nevada as a symbol of their future. But as the state’s economy struggles, it has become the epitome of the party’s midterm difficulties.”
OH-SEN: Republican candidates Josh Mandel and JD Vance Launch New TV Ads
OH-SEN: Pro-Vance Super PAC ‘Protect Ohio Values’ Releases New Poll
- Josh Mandel: 18%
- Mike Gibbons: 18%
- JD Vance: 18%
- Jane Timken: 9%
- Matt Dolan: 9%
- Undecided: 29%
OH-SEN: Jane Timken’s Campaign Releases New Internal Poll
- Mike Gibbons: 20%
- Josh Mandel: 16%
- Jane Timken: 15%
- Matt Dolan: 13%
- JD Vance: 10%
- Don’t Know / None: 26%
PA-SEN: “Republican registrations surge in Pennsylvania in warning sign for Democrats”
- “Republicans are registering formerly Democratic voters at four times the rate that Democrats are making the reverse conversion in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, a warning sign for Democrats as they try to keep control of the U.S. Congress.”
OTHER RACES:
GA-GOV: “Stacey Abrams reaches millionaire status before 2nd campaign”
- “Abrams now says she’s worth $3.17 million, according to state disclosures filed in March. That’s compared with a net worth of $109,000 when she first ran four years ago. Her rapid ascent into millionaire status corresponds with her rise in national politics.”
THE FINAL COUNTDOWN:
- Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 214
- Days until the 2024 election: 942
POLITICAL STORIES OF INTEREST:
Fox News: “House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy breaks own fundraising record with $31 million haul”
- “House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy has shattered his own fundraising record. Accumulating resources as he aims to steer the GOP back to the House of Representatives majority in November’s midterm elections, McCarthy hauled in $31.5 million during the January-March first quarter of fundraising, according to figures shared first with Fox News on Tuesday.”
Washington Examiner: “Kevin McCarthy’s $104 million raised eclipses previous House GOP leaders”
- “Rep. Kevin McCarthy is on track to raise more money this election cycle than any House Republican leader in history as the Californian eyes the speaker’s gavel.”
Axios: “Senate GOP campaign arm raises $43 million in Q1”
- “The Senate Republicans’ campaign arm raised $43 million during the first quarter of 2022, breaking its fundraising records as it gears up for an aggressive midterm cycle, Axios has learned.”
Punchbowl News: “GOP super PAC continues to crush House Dem orgs”
- “If you talk to Democrats involved in the battle for control of the House, one of their biggest concerns is that the Congressional Leadership Fund and the related American Action Network – a pair of groups that support House Republicans and their policies – are dramatically outraising their Democratic counterparts.”
Daily Beast: “GOP Candidates Can’t Stop Touching the Third Rail of Politics”
- “Scott’s strategy of approaching the GOP’s third rail issues—gleefully poking at them even—may be more prevalent in the party than many Republicans would like. That is a potential gift to Democrats. With their poll numbers sagging amid public backlash to rising inflation and high gas prices, they are eager to refocus voters’ attention on the unpopular ideas pushed by Republicans.”
Axios: “America’s internet is splitting along party lines”
- “New investments flooding partisan media platforms are starting to restructure America’s internet business around the nation’s deepening political divide. Why it matters: For years, internet theorists have warned of the ‘splinternet,’ a breakup of the global internet into regions governed by different rules and laws. Something like that is now starting to happen within the U.S., splitting the online world into red and blue sectors.”
The Washington Post “Michigan GOP roiled as Trump injects 2020 greivences into midterms”
- “While party strategists and donors in the state mobilize for a competitive fight over control of the Michigan legislature, Trump’s preferred candidates have struggled to raise funds while Democratic rivals amass cash advantages. Moreover, some Republican leaders say, the spread of election conspiracies is alienating swing voters and undermining public trust of elections.”
Politico “‘Fangs out from day one’: Chaos engulfs key state in fight for House majority”
- “The chaos in Nevada has national implications. Republicans are five seats away from reclaiming the House majority, and the state has quickly become a crucial battleground for control of the chamber this fall. House Majority PAC, congressional Democrats’ main outside group, announced it would reserve $11.6 million in TV ads in Las Vegas — more than it reserved in any other media market in the country, their strategists believe they could have to defend all three seats. None of the contests for the state’s four House seats will be easily won — and no incumbent is spared from hardship this year.”
Axios: “Percentage of voters who say partisan control of Congress really matters”
- “Republican voters are signaling how they’re thinking about the 2022 midterms, with a recent Pew Research survey showing they’re much more motivated this cycle by which party controls Congress after November. Why it matters: It’s a significant shift from the 2018 elections, when there was only a narrow gap between the two parties on the same question, Axios’ Alexi McCammond writes.”
Politico: “‘All over Hunter Biden’: Republicans lay plans for their own investigation, despite the DOJ probe”
- “Top House Republicans are vowing to dig into the overseas business dealings of the president’s son if they claim the majority next year, as is expected — picking a battle with the Justice Department and Democratic lawmakers centered around some of the same themes that defined the Trump administration’s tempestuous relationship with Congress.”
Morning Consult: “Congressional Republicans Now Lead Generic Ballot Among Child Tax Credit Recipients”
- “Voters who received expanded child tax credits payments in 2021 ended the year more likely than not to support Democratic candidates for Congress in this year’s midterm elections. But months after that benefit expired, a new Morning Consult/Politico survey shows Republicans have made up that ground.”
New York Times: “Dissatisfied With Their Party, Wealthy Republican Donors Form Secret Coalitions”
- “A new coalition of wealthy conservative benefactors that says it aims to “disrupt but advance the Republican agenda” gathered this week for a private summit in South Florida that included closed-door addresses from former President Donald J. Trump and an allied Senate candidate at Mr. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club, according to documents and interviews. The coalition, called the Rockbridge Network, includes some of Mr. Trump’s biggest donors, such as Peter Thiel and Rebekah Mercer, and has laid out an ambitious goal — to reshape the American right by spending more than $30 million on conservative media, legal, policy and voter registration projects, among other initiatives.”
Politico: “NRCC Raises $180M Through March”
- “The NRCC will announce today that they raised $19.4 million in March, compared to $11 million in 2020 at the same time, a record. They’re also setting new milestones for the most money raised in Q1: $40.9 million. — All told, they’ve raised $180 million this cycle, compared to $124.5 million at the same time to 2020, a 45% increase. And they have $97.7 million in cash on hand, which is almost double the $48.8 million the NRCC had in the bank at this point last cycle.”
Punchbowl News: “Pelosi’s Massive Quarter”
- “Speaker Nancy Pelosi raised $45.7 million for Democrats in the first quarter of this year, the largest fundraising haul we’ve seen so far. That includes $38 million directly to the DCCC. Through this entire cycle to date, Pelosi has raised a massive $192 million.”