FreedomWorks for America Weekly Update – April 1, 2022
RECENT ENDORSEMENTS:
MN-01: Jeremy Munson
- Press: https://freedomworksforamerica.org/press-releases/freedomworks-for-america-endorses-jeremy-munson-in-minnesotas-first-congressional-district/
- Tweet: https://twitter.com/FWForAmerica/status/1507342049653231616?s=20&t=Is6AwYnhKQeexUtQAPxFwQ
For current endorsements, please visit: https://freedomworksforamerica.org/
2022 GENERIC BALLOT VOTE
Note: According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, “From 2004 to 2020, a 1% increase in a party’s share of the generic ballot has translated to an average 0.87% bump in the House popular vote.” Additionally, this cycle their model shows that, “if the generic ballot polling ends up as roughly tied (as it is now), the model would suggest something like a 15-seat net gain for Republicans. A Republican lead of 10 points would correspond with a net gain of more like 30 seats.”
- Republicans: 45.9% — Democrats: 42.3%
- Spread: Republicans +3.6
- Republicans: 44.7% — Democrats: 42.6%
- Spread: Republicans +2.1
- Spread: Republicans +3
U.S. CENSUS DATA & REDISTRICTING UPDATE
Maryland – Maryland Judge rules congressional map unconstitutional.
Missouri – House rejects congressional map.
New York – Judge rejects New York redistricting plans.
Ohio – Federal Judges in Ohio won’t delay May 3 primary.
Pennsylvania – Congressional map lawsuit ends quietly.
UPCOMING FILING DEADLINES
| NC OH* UT | OR | CA GA ID | IL MT | CO ME | IA NV | MD | NM | MO SD | SC | AZ NJ |
| Mar. 4 | Mar. 8 | Mar. 11 | Mar. 14 | Mar. 15 | Mar. 18 | Mar. 22 | Mar. 24 | Mar. 29 | Mar. 30 | April 4 |
HOUSE WATCH LIST
GOING ON OFFENSE: U.S. HOUSE
| State | CD | PVI (2022 Estimated) | Incumbent/ GOP Candidate | CoH(‘21 Q4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 2 | R+6 | Tom O’Halleran (D) | $1,272,591 |
| AZ | 6 | R+3 | OPEN | N/A |
| CA | 47 | D+3 | Amy Phan West (R) | $77,403 |
| CO | 8 | R+1 | Lori Saine (R) | $129,161 |
| GA | 6 | R+12 | Jake Evans (R) | $1,006,587 |
| IA | 3 | R+3 | Cindy Axne (D) | $2,104,780 |
| IL | 11 | D+5 | Catalina Lauf (R) | $255,976 |
| IL | 14 | D+4 | Lauren Underwood (D) | $2,096,240 |
| KS | 3 | R+2 | Sharice Davids (D) | $2,384,611 |
| ME | 2 | R+6 | Jared Golden (D) | $1,426,268 |
| MI | 7 | R+2 | Elissa Slotkin (D) | $4,508,719 |
| MI | 8 | R+1 | Dan Kildee (D) | $1,744,516 |
| MI | 10 | R+3 | John James (R) | N/A |
| MN | 1 | R+6 | Jeremy Munson (R) | N/A |
| NJ | 7 | R+2 | Tom Malinowski (D) | $2,748,801 |
| NV | 1 | D+3 | Dina Titus (D) | $838,192 |
| NV | 3 | D+2 | Susie Lee (D) | $1,789,060 |
| NV | 4 | D+3 | Steven Horsford (D) | $1,678,907 |
| TX | 15 | D+1 | Retirement (D) | N/A |
| VA | 2 | R+3 | Tommy Altman (R) | $53,227 |
| VA | 7 | D+1 | Bryce Reeves (R) | $224,911 |
| VA | 10 | D+5 | Jeanine Lawson (R) | $373,636 |
| WA | 8 | D+1 | Kim Schrier (D) | $687,778 |
HOUSE UPDATES:
AK-AL: “Anchorage Daily News gardening columnist and “man of many talents, interests, and accomplishments” Jeff Lowenfels is filing to run for Alaska’s vacant U.S. House seat.”
NV-04: “Poll: GOP voters favor Sam Peters in Nevada congressional race”
- “A poll of Republican voters has U.S. Air Force Major Sam Peters in the lead of GOP hopefuls running for Nevada’s 4th Congressional District. A WPA Intelligence survey, which was conducted last week among 404 Republican primary voters, found that 33% of respondents plan to vote for Peters, who unsuccessfully ran for the seat in 2020.”
SENATE WATCH LIST
Below are the current six Senate races and the candidates FreedomWorks for America is watching for potential upcoming endorsements.
SENATE UPDATES:
NH-SEN: “Cryptocurrency entrepreneur enters New Hampshire GOP Senate race”
- “A cryptocurrency entrepreneur is the latest Republican seeking to challenge U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire. Bruce Fenton, who describes himself as a Bitcoiner and free markets advocate, announced his campaign Wednesday, saying he will run on a platform of freedom, human rights, free markets and peace.”
NV-SEN (We’ve Endorsed Adam Laxalt): “Senator Cortez Masto Trailing Potential Opponent Adam Laxalt by 5%.”
OH-SEN (Watch List): New Mandel TV Spot Features Footage from FreedomWorks’ Republican Ohio Senate Candidate Forum
UT-SEN (We’ve Endorsed Mike Lee): “Dan Jones & Associates new survey for the Deseret News and University of Utah shows Republican incumbent Mike Lee leading conservative independent Evan McMullin 43-19, with Democrat Kael Weston at 11%.”
THE FINAL COUNTDOWN
- Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 221
- Days until the 2024 election: 949
POLITICAL STORIES OF INTEREST
Morning Consult: “Voter Opposition to Jackson Ticks Up After Supreme Court Hearing”
- “Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson appears to be bound for the Supreme Court after coming through last week’s four-day confirmation hearing relatively unscathed, but the latest Morning Consult/Politico survey suggests that some of the scrutiny she faced from Senate Republicans is resonating with conservatives.”
Carolina Journal: National election watchdog issues report calling for cleanup of N.C. voter rolls
- With the headline “North Carolina: Tens of Thousands of Deceased and Duplicative Voter Registrations Found After 2020 Election,” the report identifies three areas requiring action.
- PILF raises concerns about dead people on the voting rolls. The group reports that 7,933 people were still registered to vote in 2020 in North Carolina “long after death.” One example involved a World War II veteran who died in 1997.
- PILF’s second issue involves people registered to vote in more than one state. The group reports 42,984 registered N.C. who “left the state and established or renewed their out-of-state voter registration” before the 2020 election.
- The third issue involves “same-address duplicate registrations.” PILF reports 13,525 people appeared to register twice in North Carolina under variations of the same name.
Fox News: Parents outraged over Disney’s pushback on Florida parental rights law: ‘Leave the kids alone‘
- Parents around the country are pushing back on Disney after it publicly denounced a new parental rights law in Florida, which bars teachers from discussing sexual orientation or gender identity in kindergarten through third grade.
- New York Post columnist Karol Markowicz, B.E.S.T. Executive Director Laura Zorc, and Heroes of Liberty Editor Bethany Mandel spoke out against Disney’s stance on “Fox & Friends,” warning the company is making a mistake.
- In response to the move, Zorc said she and her husband deleted their Disney+ account and even opted out of taking their children to the theme park for spring break.
- “As parents, that’s how we can stand up against this woke agenda that Disney has for our families,” Zorc said.
Just The News: Republicans maintain double digit voter advantages in key midterm categories: inflation, economy
- Voters trust the GOP significantly more than the Democratic Party on the handling of such key midterm issues as inflation and the over health of the economy, according to a new Morning Consult survey
- The survey found 46% of voters trust Republicans to handle the record-level inflation, compared to 32% for Democrats.
- Voters also favored Republicans to handle national security and the economy by double-digit margins.
- Voters also favor Republicans on such issues as immigration, Second Amendment issues and jobs. Independents, in particular, favor Republicans on economic issues – including by a 23 point margin on inflation.
New York Post: Clinton campaign, DNC fined by FEC for lying about Steele dossier payments
- The Federal Election Commission has fined both Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign and the Democratic National Committee for lying about how they spent money used to fund the now-debunked Steele dossier on former President Donald Trump.
- The Clinton campaign and the DNC will be forced to pay $8,000 and $105,000 respectively for mislabeling payments that ultimately went to Fusion GPS, the consulting firm that commissioned the dossier, according to FEC documents viewed by the Post.
- Former President Donald Trump said the ruling confirmed his belief that the 2016 Democratic candidate perpetrated a major hoax against his campaign.
- “This was done to create, as I have stated many times, and is now confirmed, a Hoax funded by the DNC and the Clinton Campaign. This corruption is only beginning to be revealed, is un-American, and must never be allowed to happen again. Where do I go to get my reputation back?”
The Post Millennial: Arizona passes laws to protect kids, protect women’s sports, protect the unborn, and protect election integrity
- On Wednesday, Arizona’s Republican Governor Doug Ducey signed a series of legislative measures into law that pertain to a number of hot-button issues in the country.
- Ducey signed an abortion ban, a ban on biological males participating in women’s sports, a ban on minors getting transgender reassignment surgery, and an election integrity bill.
- On top of the latest actions, Ducey announced he’s ending the COVID-19 Declaration of Emergency on the grounds that Arizona’s metrics indicate the pandemic has died down.
FWIW: “With Senate majority on the line, Republicans choose chaos”
- “Look, it’s normal for high-stakes statewide primaries to be competitive, but if Republicans had illusions of running a bunch of polished, disciplined Glenn Youngkin lookalikes on the ballot this year, they must be disappointed.”
Axios: “Progressives build massive, cloaked online powerhouse”
- “Progressive strategists have quietly built a massive network of social media communities in political battleground states that can activate ahead of elections and policy fights, Axios has learned. Why it matters: The network, operating under the name Real Voices Media, uses apolitical, nonideological content to build up audiences. It then leverages the crowd on behalf of clients in what experts say is a potent persuasion strategy. President Biden and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer are beneficiaries.”
Nieman Reports: “The Midterms Are Coming. Here’s How to Cover Polling”
- “Looking ahead, pollsters will need to recognize the importance of reaching people in different ways, says Politico’s Shepard. This means continuing the evolution of polls to include more cell phone interviews and branching out to email, text message, or regular mail. Other analyses have pointed to the need to consider educational attainment as a bigger part of the equation, along with attributes such as age, gender, and geographic location.”