The Latest: Neil Parrott Wins in Maryland’s 6th Congressional District

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VICTORY! – MD-06: Neil Parrott


RECENT ENDORSEMENTS:

WY-AL: Harriet Hageman


2022 GENERIC BALLOT VOTE

Axios: “House battleground poll hints at big GOP wave”

  • “A new poll of the 56 most competitive battleground House districts found that Republicans hold a four-point advantage — 46% to 42% — on the generic congressional ballot. Why it matters: Despite several recent polls showing incremental gains by Democrats, the reality is that the political environment remains favorable for Republicans.” 
    • “Driving the news: The survey, conducted by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and Biden pollster John Anzalone for the AARP, indicates former President Trump is on average significantly more popular than President Biden in these swing districts.”

FiveThirtyEight: Midterm Forecaster

  • House: Republicans favored to win the House
  • Senate: Toss-Up

Note: According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, their model shows that “if the generic ballot polling ends up as roughly tied …, the model would suggest something like a 15-seat net gain for Republicans. A Republican lead of 10 points would correspond with a net gain of more like 30 seats.”

RealClearPolitics 

  • Republicans: 44.3% — Democrats: 42.7%
  • Spread: Republicans +1.6

FiveThirtyEight 

  • Republicans: 44.1% — Democrats: 43.2%
  • Spread: Republicans +0.9

Ballotpedia

  • Spread: Tied

UPCOMING PRIMARY ELECTIONS:

MDAZ
KS
MI
MO
WA
TNCT
MN
WI
VT
HIAK
WY
FLMADE
NH
RI
7/198/28/48/98/138/168/239/69/13
Dates are subject to change. | Source: Ballotpedia, 07/22/22

HOUSE UPDATES:

FL-07 (We’ve endorsed Anthony Sabatini): Sabatini Leads in New Poll

  • “Proud to have a 7+ point lead in my race for U.S. Congress (FL-7) in the most recent RMG Research! (Scott Rasmussen)”

IA-03: “Biden unpopularity boosts Iowa GOP challenger Nunn vs. Democratic Rep. Axne”

  • “Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA) is all tied up with Republican challenger Zach Nunn as she attempts to withstand a red electoral wave and win reelection in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District. That is the assessment of the July 9–11 poll jointly commissioned by the Nunn campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee.”

WY-AL (We’ve endorsed Harriet Hageman): “Cheney raises big money but polls show her far back in primary fight”

  • “Wyoming GOP Rep. Liz Cheney continued to build an impressive war chest ahead of her GOP primary next month against Trump-backed candidate Harriet Hageman. But two new polls show her losing the primary by over twenty points despite the hefty financial advantage.”

SENATE UPDATES:

AZ-SEN: “Blake Masters is surging in Senate primary. Why do Republican voters seem discomforted?”

  • “Political newcomer and venture capitalist Blake Masters is now leading the pack of Republicans vying to take on Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. But does it really matter who actually pulls it off? This is the pivotal question voters casting their ballots for the Aug. 2 primary should be asking. It can’t be a coincidence that while Masters has surged in recent weeks, a whopping 35% of likely Republican voters remain undecided, according to the most recent OH Predictive Insights’ poll.”

CT-SEN (We’ve endorsed Leora Levy): Leora Levy Releases New Attack Ad Against Republican Opponent

MO-SEN: “Nebraska governor makes big donation to take out Greitens”

  • “Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts is among the biggest donors to a super PAC devoted to torpedoing Missouri Republican Eric Greitens’ Senate campaign. The second-term governor, who hails from one of the wealthiest megadonor families in the Republican Party, has contributed $250,000 to Show Me Values, according to campaign finance disclosures released late Wednesday.”

PA-SEN: “Fetterman to attend first in-person fundraiser since suffering stroke”

  • “If Fetterman can demonstrate he’s well on the road to recovery, it would be welcome news to Democrats who fear his health problems could jeopardize their chances of winning a crucial Senate seat this fall.”

UT-SEN (We’ve endorsed Sen. Mike Lee): Senator Mike Lee Edges Out Evan McMullen in Latest Poll

  • And the latest Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll found that like the scorching temperatures in Utah, it’s going to be a hot one. The survey of 801 registered Utah voters shows 41% would vote for Lee and 36% for McMullin if the general election were held today. Another 14% would choose another candidate (two third-party candidates are on the ballot) and 8% don’t know who they would vote for.”

OTHER RACES:

2024 (Presidential): “Democratic Group Sues the Federal Election Commission Over Trump’s 2024 Hinting”

  • “A Democratic super PAC filed a lawsuit against the Federal Election Commission on Wednesday, seeking to force officials to take action against Donald J. Trump for all but running for president in 2024 without having declared himself a candidate.”

2024 (Presidential): “A radical plan for Trump’s second term”

  • “Former President Trump’s top allies are preparing to radically reshape the federal government if he is re-elected, purging potentially thousands of civil servants and filling career posts with loyalists to him and his “America First” ideology, people involved in the discussions tell Axios. The impact could go well beyond typical conservative targets such as the Environmental Protection Agency and the Internal Revenue Service. Trump allies are working on plans that would potentially strip layers at the Justice Department — including the FBI, and reaching into national security, intelligence, the State Department and the Pentagon, sources close to the former president say.”

NY-GOV: “Alleged Lee Zeldin attempted attacker charged with felony, immediately released just as congressman predicted”

  • “A man who allegedly attacked Rep. Lee Zeldin, R-N.Y., with a sharp object at a campaign stop in Perinton, New York, Thursday evening was charged with a felony and released from custody within hours of his arrest, the Monroe County Sheriff’s Department said.”

THE FINAL COUNTDOWN:

  • Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 109
  • Days until the 2024 election: 837

​POLITICAL STORIES OF INTEREST:

Axios: “GOP’s grassroots money problem”

  • “Democrats across the 10 most competitive Senate races are out-raising Republicans by more than $75 million among small-dollar donors — those giving less than $200 — according to an Axios analysis of Federal Election Commission records. … A concerted Republican effort to build a small-dollar fundraising apparatus independent of Trump’s brand appears to be faltering, while Democrats are building on the massive grassroots financial success they saw in 2020.”

Morning Consult: “Biden’s Net Approval Rating Now Underwater in 44 States”

  • Biden saw no significant change in his net approval rating in 23 states, along with generally modest declines in most others.
  • Roughly 2 in 5 voters approve of his job performance in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
  • Biden is generally more popular among Democrats who identify as liberal than among Democrats who identify as moderate or conservative.

Axios: “Republicans’ low-key primary offensive”

  • “A well-funded Republican political apparatus has quietly sought to tip the scales in key GOP primaries this year, funding local-sounding super PACs to try — with limited success so far — to knock off hard-right Republican candidates, records show. … The operation’s nerve center is a super PAC called the Eighteen Fifty Four Fund, formed this year by Kevin McLaughlin, the former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.”

Axios: “Democrats embrace law enforcement to hit GOP on crime”

  • “Just two years after calls to defund the police erupted in the wake of George Floyd’s murder, Democrats in states like Ohio, Georgia and Florida are spotlighting law enforcement to boost their credibility on fighting crime.”

ABC News: “Senate Democrats’ campaign arm sees Roe surge, outraises GOP counterpart in second quarter”

  • “In numbers shared first with ABC News, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) said Tuesday it drew $33.5 million in donations from April to June, of which $12.5 million was raised in June alone. The group finished June with more than $53.5 million in the bank and has no debt, it said. Comparatively, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) previously announced that it raised $25.6 million in the second quarter of 2022 and finished June with $28.5 million cash on hand. It also had no debt, it said.”

Axios: “Newly naturalized citizens could sway elections in key states”

  • “The growing demographic of naturalized citizens has the potential to become an election-deciding voting bloc — especially in swing states that could determine which party controls Congress this fall. What to watch: The report, released Wednesday, notes that newly naturalized citizens are typically less likely to register and turn out to vote than U.S.-born citizens.”

Axios: “17 House Democrats arrested at abortion rights rally”

  • “Seventeen House Democrats were detained Tuesday at an abortion rights rally protesting the Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade. Driving the news: U.S. Capitol Police said that it started arresting demonstrators after they failed to follow their three warnings to stop blocking a street in Washington, D.C. near the Supreme Court.”

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